Risers and Fallers: Order of Merit 2025

Welcome to the second edition of the Oche Index! This week I asked myself,

I wonder if there is an easier way to see who is likely to fall or rise in the order of merit in 2025.

So I made this plot,

It shows my current strength rating on a scale of 50 to 100 on the Y-axis and on the X-axis the percentage of their prize money they are defending in 2025.

Therefore we can split the graph into 4 main sections based on the average strength, which is 65 and players who are defending more or less than 50% of their current winnings.

Less to Defend, Likely to Rise

This section is the most simple. Players with little to defend for 2025, but are very strong players currently.

Of course, newly crowned World Champion Luke Littler is the standout in this section as he currently is rated as 100/100 and is defending just 18.1% of his prize money or just over £200,000 and pretty much all of that is his World Championship final.

Other notable players here is Mike De Decker and Ritchie Edhouse. Mike will be out with a point to prove after missing out on the Premier League and Richie is defending the least of his prize money of anyone in the top 32 with just 13.1%.

So expect them to rise in 2025. Can the Nuke even reach world number 1?

More to Defend, Likely to Defend

Again another simple one. Players with lots to defend for 2025, but should be strong enough to defend it.

The main standout here is Luke Humphries, as he is defending 64.0% of his Prize money, a whopping £1,154,750 to be exact, however, he is certainly good enough to defend a large portion of that.

The other two players that sneak into this section which I’ll talk about is Gerwyn Price and Nathan Aspinall. Both are on the far right side of the plot meaning that they have lots to defend, 64.9% for Price and 70.2% for Nathan. Both are in patchy form but on their day they are more than good enough to defend this. So expect them to Defend some but not all of it.

Less to Defend, Likely to Remain

This section is for players who have little to defend in 2025 and are currently below the average strength of the top 32.

There is just one player who falls in here, Dimitri Van Den Bergh. He is defending just 34.7% of his prize money but currently is below the average strength of 65.

So he’s someone that even with an average year because he is not defending much is likely to stay around world number 18 given he plays at his current level.

More to Defend, Likely to Fall

This is the easiest to understand, players who have more than 50% of their prize money to defend this year, but are currently below the average standard of the top 32.

Two players stand out here the most, Brendan Dolan and Joe Cullen. Both defending 62.4% and 62.9% of their prize money respectively and are currently quite below the standard of the top 32.

So expect them to fall during this year, especially if they keep up their current form.

There is plenty more you could see from this plot, if there’s anything you see I’d love to see it so tag me on X with it or if there is anything else you’d like to see plotted like this let me know!