Premier League Darts: Night 9

A brief newsletter this week, just a small update! Here is all the output from my model before Night 9 of the Darts Premier League.

Luke Littler now makes the playoffs in 10,000/10,000 simulations! Hes averaging a crazy 43.2 points… and even 6 Nightly Wins!

Next is the average points for each player broken down further. The “+/-” is the standard deviation of how each player’s points is distributed. Therefore we can use this to give our bottom 5% and top 95% confidence levels at how many points each player achieves.

What this means in simple terms is the best 5% of simulations Luke Littler achieved around 54.3 points, while in his worst 5%, he achieved 32.1 or fewer points.

This shows the number of points per position in the league. So regardless of who finishes where we track that position’s number of points.

Included here is still the standard deviation so we can get our confidence intervals. Currently before Night 9, the average points of position 4 and the cut-off for playoffs was 24.2, with this ranging between 19.7 and 28.8 with 95% confidence.

We can break this down further to see how often 4th place, whoever it is, finishes on what number of points.

Currently, 24 is the most common, happening in 18.3% of sims. The next most common is 25, which happens in 16.2% of sims.

If you got this far, thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!