Premier League Darts: Night 8

Here is all the analysis from my model before Night 8 of the Darts Premier League in Newcastle.

Luke Littler continues to dominate the Premier League, picking up his third night win in just 7 Nights. Surely he surpasses the four-night win record now…

Luke Littler is now 99.8% certain to be in the Premier League playoffs, whereas the struggling Stephen Bunting is just 3.9% likely as he has yet to win a game. Night 8 is a different night as the bracket is based on league position for your seed and so Luke Littler will play Stephen Bunting in the first Quarter-Final of the night. Another Loss for Buting and we could see his playoff chance under 2%.

Next is the average points for each player broken down further. The “+/-” is the standard deviation of how each player’s points is distributed. Therefore we can use this to give our bottom 5% and top 95% confidence levels at how many points each player achieves.

What this means in simple terms is the best 5% of simulations Luke Littler achieved around 52 points, while in his worst 5%, he achieved 28.6 or fewer points.

Luke Littler is now picking up on average 5.2 Night Wins, meaning he is more than likely to beat the 4-night win record, and you can see why he is so likely for playoffs since in 95% of simulations, he is achieving at least 28.6 points.

This shows the number of points per position in the league. So regardless of who finishes where we track that position’s number of points.

Included here is still the standard deviation so we can get our confidence intervals. Currently before Night 8, the average points of position 4 and the cut-off for playoffs was 24.8, with this ranging between 20.0 and 29.6 with 95% confidence.

A small decrease from last week, the winner (most likely Luke Litter) is now averaging above 40 points for the first time.

We can break this down further to see how often 4th place, whoever it is, finishes on what number of points.

Currently, 24 is the most common, happening in 17.3% of sims. The next most common is 25 happening in 16.6% of sims.

The only notable change here was the change for 23 points which saw a rise from 12.1% to 13.1% this week. We see the points needed for playoffs going lower as more of the points are being won by the same players each week.

I.e. The more wins Luke Littler gets, the least points to go around and so the points needed for 4th would be less.

So, who will win Night 8? I’m going with the easy guess, but he can’t win again, right?

My guess is Luke Litter.

If you got this far, thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!