Premier League Darts: Night 7

Here is all the analysis from my model before Night 7 of the Darts Premier League in Cardiff.

Gerwyn Price was last week’s winner. The Welshman is making a charge for the playoffs and looks now to be the third favourite to do so!

Gerwyn Price is now 73.9% likely to make the playoffs after another Night Win. That’s up from 48.2% last week, with his average points up to 26.2.

Michael van Gerwen still has yet to make a final on any night, but he is still 65.5% likely, which is around 2% down from last week. He would be falling more if the lower players around him where picking up more points.

This marks the first set of 10,000 sims we see Luke Littler not finishing last place in the Premier League, last week just 1 of these sims remained.

Next is the average points for each player broken down further. The “+/-” is the standard deviation of how each player’s points is distributed. Therefore we can use this to give our bottom 5% and top 95% confidence levels at how many points each player achieves.

What this means in simple terms is the best 5% of simulations Luke Littler achieved around 50.0 points, while in his worst 5%, he achieved 25.5 or fewer points.

Gerwyn Price is now projected to get to at least 3 Nightly Wins on average.

While the model is still expecting on average for Stephen Bunting to pick up a Night Win.

This shows the number of points per position in the league. So regardless of who finishes where we track that position’s number of points.

Included here is still the standard deviation so we can get our confidence intervals. Currently before Night 7, the average points of position 4 and the cut-off for playoffs was 24.9, with this ranging between 20.2 and 29.7 with 95% confidence.

A HUGE (In relative terms) increase from last week. The average points needed for 4th was 24.4 last week.

This increase continues to happen as the majority of the points continue to go to the same few players.

We can break this down further to see how often 4th place, whoever it is, finishes on what number of points.

Currently, 25 is the most common, happening in 17.0% of sims. The next most common is 24 happening in 16.7% of sims.

This a stark contrast from last week when 24 points were most common and 25 points were needed in 16.4% of sims, whereas now it’s at 17.0%.

And yes, there are 2 out of 10,000 simulations in which 35 points is the number needed for 4th place. I’d imagine this is just both Luke’s, MVG and Price dominating the rest of the League Phase.

So Who will win Night 7? My recent form of predictions has been pretty poor, but this week I’m going out of the box, and expecting a Home win for the Iceman.

My guess is Gerwyn Price.

If you got this far, thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!