Premier League Darts: Night 6

Here is all the analysis from my model before Night 6 of the Darts Premier League in Nottingham.

Thought I’d start to include a look at the table before jumping into the data now that we are a few weeks in. What it only shows is just how much both Lukes are running away with it. Surely one of them will hit the 5 Nightly win mark this year.

Another Night win from Luke Littler puts him right back on top of the projections, which him now 57.0% likely to win the League Phase. These percentages now look very similar to those we had in week 1.

Like last week, both Lukes are now almost surely into the playoffs, being around 97% likely that we now see them both in the O2. Whereas Chris Dobey and Stephen Bunting both start to fall adrift. Bunting is yet to win a game so far…

Next is the average points for each player broken down further. The “+/-” is the standard deviation of how each player’s points is distributed. Therefore, we can use this to give our bottom 5% and top 95% confidence levels at how many points each player achieves.

What this means in simple terms is the best 5% of simulations Luke Littler achieved around 49.8 points, while in his worst 5%, he achieved 23.6 or fewer points.

Luke Littler is now averaging 4.7 nightly wins too, making it probable that on current form, he becomes the first player ever to get 5 nightly wins.

This shows the number of points per position in the league. So regardless of who finishes where, we track that position’s number of points.

Included here is still the standard deviation so we can get our confidence intervals. Currently before Night 1, the average points of position 4 and the cut-off for playoffs was 24.4, with this ranging between 19.8 and 29.0 with 95% confidence.

This is another decrease from last week, however as we keep seeing the same winners, less points are going to the lower players and so the amount needed for playoffs drops down.

We can break this down further to see how often 4th place, whoever it is, finishes on what number of points.

Currently, 24 is the most common, happening in 17.4% of sims. The next most common is 25, happening in 16.4% of sims.

The small increase was in the number of simulations needed where 23 was enough, this went from 14.5% to 14.8%

Who will win Night 6? There can only be 1 man after his recent performances…

My Guess is Luke Littler.

If you got this far, thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!