Premier League Darts: Night 4

Here is all the analysis from my model before Night 4 of the Darts Premier League in Exeter!

A huge win for Gerwyn Price has sent him flying up the matrix projections. Last week he had around a 33% chance at making the playoffs, which now sits at over 57%. His average points now sit right on the 24, 25 point mark needed for playoffs so we can say that he will be one certainly in the fight till the end of the playoffs.

The battle for 1st place in the league phase however is now the tightest we have seen it! With both Lukes being separated by just 0.3% for first place.

Luke Littler seems to be on a trend of either winning the night or going out in the opening round, so I’ll guess it’s his turn to win in Night 4.

Next are the average points for each player broken down further. The “+/-” is the standard deviation of how each player’s points are distributed. Therefore we can use this to give our bottom 5% and top 95% confidence levels at how many points each player achieves.

What this means in simple terms is the best 5% of simulations Luke Littler achieved around 46.6 points, while in his worst 5%, he achieved 18.4 or fewer points. This is much lower than last week after another quarter-final exit.

After his win on Night 3, Price jumps to 2.3 projected night wins, which is why we see that jump in his chances of playoffs. The graphic is ordered by nightly wins so that’s why Price is higher than MvG.

This shows the number of points per position in the league. So regardless of who finishes where we track that position’s number of points.

Included here is still the standard deviation so we can get our confidence intervals. Currently before Night 4, the average points of position 4 and the cut-off for playoffs was 24.9, with this ranging between 20.4 and 29.4 with 95% confidence.

So the average has changed this week from 24.7 to 24.9 points. So you’d expect that the average points needed for playoffs has once again risen to that 25-point mark most likely.

We can break this down further to see how often 4th place, whoever it is, finishes on what number of points.

Currently, 25 is the most common, happening in 17.9% of sims. The next most common is 24 happening in 16.9% of sims.

The interesting thing to note here is the jump in the % chance that 26 points are needed. Before last week this was just 13.9% and now is 15.8%. The explanation for this is that when the majority of the points are shared between the same playing the points needed for 4th will increase however if more unique players start winning the points will be distributed more and so this will decrease.

Assuming the Nightly Win Pattern follows, My Night 4 winner is Luke Littler.

If you got this far thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!