Premier League Darts: Night 3

Here is all the analysis from my model before Night 3 of the Darts Premier League in Dublin Ireland!

Luke Littler extended his lead at the top of the projected table after his win last week by around 10%, now coming in first in the league phase in 47.2% of simulations. Luke Humphries's chance also increased by around 1%, as it becomes even clearer just after a few weeks that one of the Lukes would win the league phase. This happens in 80.5% of sims.

MvG is now in a spot on his own really in the projections picking up on average 26.7 points which should be plenty to see him into the playoffs which he does on 69.5% of simulations.

Nathan Aspinall now just has a 13.1% chance of making the playoffs on current form, he gets on average 16.1 points.

Next are the average points for each player broken down further. The “+/-” is the standard deviation of how each player’s points are distributed. Therefore we can use this to give our bottom 5% and top 95% confidence levels at how many points each player achieves.

What this means in simple terms is the best 5% of simulations Luke Littler achieved around 49.0 points, while in his worst 5%, he achieved 19.9 or fewer points.

Luke Littler now on average wins 4.3 Nights after picking up his first last week, could he go on to break the record and be the first person to get 5 night win?

It’s looking ever more likely, especially if he can rack up some early wins…

This shows the number of points per position in the league. So regardless of who finishes where we track that position’s number of points.

Included here is still the standard deviation so we can get our confidence intervals.

The average points needed for 4th place have dropped by 0.2 points to 24.7, so this tells us that it might be that we are once again returning to the 24-point mark for playoffs…

We can break this down further to see how often 4th place, whoever it is, finishes on what number of points.

25 is still just the most likely points for 4th position, with it being just 0.1% more likely than 24 points.

The reason for this falling over the first two weeks is because the more winners we get of a small select group, think both Lukes and MvG, the fewer points that go around for the others.

Somehow in 2 simulations out of 10,000 (0.02%), 34 points are needed for 4th place!

I am working on adapting the code slightly to pull out exact simulations so we can see where these simulations came from!

If you got this far thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!