Premier League Darts: Night 2

Here is all the analysis from my model before Night 2 of the Darts Premier League.

Luke Littler is the just still the favourite for finishing first in the League Phase. He finished at the top of the League Phase in 37.5% of the 10,000 sims. With last week’s winner, Luke Humphries is now right up behind him on 32.9% to top the league. Humphries is now most likely at this stage to make playoffs at 85.8% just beating out Luke Littler by 0.5% at 85.8%.

Nathan Aspinall is still projected to come last in the Premier League, which is now occurring in 33.8% of simulations, he only makes the playoffs in 17.2% of 10,000 simulations.

Next is the average points for each player broken down further. The “+/-” is the standard deviation of how each player’s points is distributed. Therefore we can use this to give our bottom 5% and top 95% confidence levels at how many points each player achieves.

What this means in simple terms is the best 5% of simulations Luke Littler achieved around 49.5 points last week, this is now 46.8 points after going out in the Quarter-Finals.

After getting 1 win on the board, Luke Humphries already has had his nightly wins projection rise to 3.5.

This shows the number of points per position in the league. So regardless of who finishes where we track that position’s number of points.

Before Night 1, the average points of position 4 and the cut-off for playoffs was 24.9, with this ranging between 20.5 and 29.2 with 95% confidence.

Now before Night 2, the average points of position 4 and the cut-off for playoffs is still 24.9, with the only change being a slight increase in our boundaries. At this stage, we would still estimate it to need 25 points for Playoffs.

This holds when we look at the raw number of simulations of how many points 4th place, whoever it is, finishes on.

So far looking to be 25 points at 18.9%, with 24 points next most likely at 18.2% and then 26 points at 15.6%.