Premier League Darts: Night 16

Here is all the analysis from my model before Night 16 of the Darts Premier League in Sheffield. Only 1 play-off spot remains and Nathan Aspinall holds all the cards and he can control his own destiny by beating Michael van Gerwen tonight. Here’s what the model thinks.

Also, thank you to everyone who reads this series every week! It won’t stop here as we have all the Majors, so more newsletters will still be coming before the big events!

So the race for the final play-off spot after 10,000 simulations is as follows,

• Nathan Aspinall - 86.5%

• Michael van Gerwen - 13.5%

It’s this simple: MVG has to win the night.

It looks likely he would have to after beating Aspinall, then beating Littler and Humphries to claim his play-off spot.

So, who will win Night 16? If anyone had told you at the start of this years Premier League campaign that we would go 16 nights of action without a Michael van Gerwen Night win, they would have called you crazy.

I think, given all the pressure is on him, we are going to see a vintage MvG performance.

My Night 16 winner guess is Michael van Gerwen.

If you got this far, thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!