Premier League Darts: Night 15

Here is all the analysis from my model before Night 15 of the Darts Premier League in Aberdeen. Plus, I finally got a Premier League Night winner correct after predicting Luke Humphries last week! (Only took about 10 nights haha)

Only one Playoff spot is left to play for. This is because on the last night it is seeded based on positon in the league and so 4th and 5th will met in the Quarter-Final and be guaranteed to take points off each other.

So the race for the final play-off spot after 10,000 simulations is as follows,

• Michael van Gerwen - 69.3%

• Nathan Aspinall - 29.2%

• Rob Cross 1.4%

• Chris Dobey - 0.1%

So how many points will be needed for the play-offs?

Currently, 24 is the most common, happening in 30.75% of sims. The next most common is 22, happening in 19.71% of sims.

There is still a handful of simulations in which 4th ends with 29 points! I imagine this comes from Price being a finalist and semi-finalist and then MvG winning both of the remaining two nights!

So who will win Night 15? It’s time for me to go back-to-back on predicting the correct night winner and I think its about time he wins one.

My guess is Michael van Gerwen.

If you got this far, thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!