Premier League Darts: Night 14

Here is all the analysis from my model before Night 14 of the Darts Premier League in Leeds.

Luke Littler wins again! He now holds the outright record for most Night Wins at 5 in a single Premier League campaign, but can he make it 6?

Luke Littler becomes our first player guaranteed into the playoffs and now wins the league phase in 97.8% of the 10,000 simulations. In stark contrast, Bunting now is only making the playoffs in around 0.1% of the 10,000 and its likely we see him elimited from contention this week.

Next is the average points for each player broken down further. The “+/-” is the standard deviation of how each player’s points is distributed. Therefore we can use this to give our bottom 5% and top 95% confidence levels at how many points each player achieves.

What this means in simple terms is the best 5% of simulations Luke Littler achieved around 48.3 points, while in his worst 5%, he achieved 34.6 or fewer points.

Luke Littler is projected to get to 5.7 Night Wins, meaning he is more likely than not to extend that Night win tally to 6. Whereas somehow MvG is averaging 0.4 Night Wins while still be favourite to still get into the playoffs.

This shows the number of points per position in the league. So, regardless of who finishes where, we track that position’s number of points.

Included here is still the standard deviation so we can get our confidence intervals. Currently before Night 14, the average points of position 4 and the cut-off for playoffs was 24.7, with this ranging between 21.3 and 28.0 with 95% confidence.

This increase continues to happen as the majority of the points continue to go to the same few players, and that’s why with Luke Littler winning again we see the points needed for 4th on average jump up again.

We can break this down further to see how often 4th place, whoever it is, finishes on what number of points.

Currently, 24 is the most common, happening in 29.71% of sims. The next most common is 25 happening in 18.51% of sims.

The change this week is that many of the lower tallies are now not seen as MvG currently sits 4th on 20. The lowest any player makes it through to the playoffs on is 22 seen in just over 11.5% of the 10,000 sims.

However in just 5 out of 10,000, its still 31!

So who will win Night 14? There’s only one man who is winning this one.

My guess is Luke Humphries.

If you got this far, thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!