Premier League Darts: Night 13

Here is all the analysis from my model before Night 13 of the Darts Premier League. Short Update this week, but all the same stats!

Gerwyn Price wins again!

Gerwyn Price is now 85.1% likely to make the playoffs after another Night Win. Now he’s picking up on average 25.6 points. Bunting now just has a 1.4% chance of making the playoffs. When will the model fully show not a single simulation with him outside of contention?

Next is the average points for each player broken down further. The “+/-” is the standard deviation of how each player’s points is distributed. Therefore we can use this to give our bottom 5% and top 95% confidence levels at how many points each player achieves.

What this means in simple terms is the best 5% of simulations Luke Littler achieved around 46.5 points, while in his worst 5%, he achieved 30.6 or fewer points.

The model is still expecting on average for Luke Littler to pick up his 5th Night Win and break the record!

This shows the number of points per position in the league. So regardless of who finishes where we track that position’s number of points.

Included here is still the standard deviation so we can get our confidence intervals. Currently before Night 13, the average points of position 4 and the cut-off for playoffs was 24.0, with this ranging between 20.4 and 27.7 with 95% confidence.

The first week we have seen it average exactly 24!

This exact 24 tally occurs in exactly 26.74% of the 10,000 simulations, so its becoming more and more likely that we will be going right back to the standard 24 points needed for playoffs, unlike last year’s 29!

So who will win Night 13? It’s about time I get one right! So I’m going with…

Gerwyn Price.

If you got this far, thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!