Premier League Darts: Night 12

Here is all the analysis from my model before Night 12 of the Darts Premier League in Liverpool.

Chris Dobey might have just saved his slim chance at making the playoffs with a Win in Night 11, but he’s going to have to continue to pick up more wins if he is to mount a full comeback.

Michael van Gerwen is now 5th Likely to make the Premier League Playoffs…

Still sitting at 52.6% likely, so it is more than likely that he gets there but he is still yet to get a Nightly win the only other person not to do so is Rob Cross. MvG has only reached 1 final so far.

Even after his win, Dobey sits on just 15.9% likely to make the playoffs. Something you might spot is that Price is 3rd likely to make the playoffs, but on average he gets the 5th most points?

This is because as you can see from the spread, he has a lower floor than the Asp and MvG. By floor, I mean he comes last the most out of the three at 2.8% and so there is more sims where is still finishes much lower than the other two in points total.

Next is the average points for each player broken down further. The “+/-” is the standard deviation of how each player’s points is distributed. Therefore we can use this to give our bottom 5% and top 95% confidence levels at how many points each player achieves.

What this means in simple terms is that the best 5% of simulations Luke Littler achieved around 49.3 points, while in his worst 5%, he achieved 32.0 or fewer points.

Here we can see the Price floor effect further, as we see his worst 5% of sims see him get 14.7 points, and he also has a lower ceiling than Mvg, as he only gets to a highest points total of around 29.8, whereas Mvg hits over 30, at 30.7.

This shows the number of points per position in the league. So, regardless of who finishes where, we track that position’s number of points.

Included here is still the standard deviation so we can get our confidence intervals. Currently, before Night 12, the average points of position 4 and the cut-off for playoffs was 23.3, with this ranging between 19.8 and 26.9 with 95% confidence.

Since both players with the lowest points total picked up all the points from the final and winner spots last week we saw a big dip in the average points needed for 4th place.

We can break this down further to see how often 4th place, whoever it is, finishes on what number of points.

Currently, 22 is the most common, happening in 22.80% of sims. The next most common is 24, happening in 21.4% of sims.

It looks like 22 is now most common after a large share of the points went to the lowest players in the last few weeks. So the real question is becoming, will it be 22 or 24 points needed for the O2?

So who will win Night 12? My recent form of predictions has been pretty poor, but surly its time for a Luke to win a night and its record breaking time, for a 5th Nightly win.

My guess is Luke Littler.

If you got this far, thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!