Premier League Darts: Night 11

Here is all the analysis from my model before Night 11 of the Darts Premier League in Rotterdam.

Nathan Aspinall was last week’s winner and now joins Gerwyn Price and MVG all on 15 points which puts him right back into the playoff picture.

Aspinall is now 42.2% likely to make the playoffs after his Night 10 Win. With both Lukes 99.4% likely to be in the playoffs, it looks like it will be a 4-horse race for the last 2 remaining spots.

And yes, there is 1 in 10,000 chance that somehow Rob Cross or Stephen Butning goes on to win the League Phase of the Premier League…

Next is the average points for each player broken down further. The “+/-” is the standard deviation of how each player’s points is distributed. Therefore, we can use this to give our bottom 5% and top 95% confidence levels at how many points each player achieves.

What this means in simple terms is the best 5% of simulations Luke Littler achieved around 50.5 points, while in his worst 5%, he achieved 31.2 or fewer points.

Luke Littler is still projected to get his 5th Night win which would be a record for this format of the Premier League. It’s likely that the 16 Nights of Premier League Action breaks down to,

Number of Nightly Wins

Littler - 6
Humphries - 3
Price - 3
MVG - 1
Asp - 1
Cross - 0
Butning - 2
Dobey - 0

This shows the number of points per position in the league. So, regardless of who finishes where we track that position’s number of points.

Included here is still the standard deviation so we can get our confidence intervals. Currently before Night 11, the average points of position 4 and the cut-off for playoffs was 24.0, with this ranging between 19.8 and 28.1 with 95% confidence.

So this means we are now bang on track for a standard Premier League with 24 points exactly needed to finish in 4th place.

This will go lower if the players already on the most points (both Lukes) keep winning, and get more if more of the lower players pick up more points over the Lukes.

We can break this down further to see how often 4th place, whoever it is, finishes on what number of points.

Currently, 24 is the most common, happening in 19.99% of sims. The next most common is 25 happening in 17.15% of sims.

So, Who will win Night 11? I think its about time he won one…

My guess is Michael van Gerwen.

If you got this far, thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!