Premier League Darts: Night 10

Here is all the model’s projections before Night 10 of the Darts Premier League

Can Bunting do it?

Bunting still even with that win has just a 7.5% chance of making the playoffs and is still favourite to come last in the League at 39.9%.

Next is the average points for each player broken down further. The “+/-” is the standard deviation of how each player’s points is distributed. Therefore, we can use this to give our bottom 5% and top 95% confidence levels at how many points each player achieves.

What this means in simple terms is that the best 5% of simulations Luke Littler achieved around 51.4 points, while in his worst 5%, he achieved 30.5 or fewer points.

The model is still expecting Luke Littler to pick up on average 5.7 Night wins!

This shows the number of points per position in the league. So regardless of who finishes where, we track that position’s number of points.

Included here is still the standard deviation so we can get our confidence intervals. Currently, before Night 10, the average points of position 4 and the cut-off for playoffs was exactly 24.0, with this ranging between 19.6 and 28.4 with 95% confidence.

We can break this down further to see how often 4th place, whoever it is, finishes on what number of points.

Currently, 24 is the most common, happening in 18.2% of sims. The next most common is 25, happening in 16.5% of sims.

So who will win Night 10? I reckon he goes back-to-back…

My guess is Stephen Bunting.

If you got this far, thanks for reading and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (X), @AaronWar_ for any suggestions on data you’d like to see in the Newsletter about the Darts Premier League!