PDC World Masters

The 2025 PDC World Masters is here! This is how my model currently sees the event unfolding.

Currently, my model which simulates the Masters 10,000 times has Luke Littler winning 26.9% of 10,000 making him the favourite with a clear next likely 3 as Luke Humphries, Michael van Gerwen and last year’s champion, Stephen Bunting ranging between 13.4% and 10.8%.

If no one of the big four wins the event, the model has Gary Anderson at 3.9%, who is fresh off winning the 2025 Dutch Darts Masters at 3.5%.

The most likely final is of course Luke Littler vs Luke Humphries occurring in 9.35% of 10,000 simulations.

The results could have a big impact on the top 8 in the world with top 4 almost certainly up for grabs. Rob Cross retains his world number 4 spot in 55.7% of sims and Stephen Bunting becomes world number 4 in 32.1% of sims.

This shows the Liver order of merit from darts rankings. This means we can see that if Rob Cross went out in the last 16 (Second Round) then Bunting would need to make the Semi-Final to become World Number 4.

This now shows down to World Number 16. Players are included in the plot if they have an above 1% chance of being inside the world'ss top 16 after the event.

The least likely is Mike De Decker, who could be as high as world number 12 if he was to win the event.

As for the Top 32, not much is projected to change as its highly unlikely that someone from outside the top 32 will make a deep run in the event. With Krzysztof Ratajski 89.4% likely to keep his top 32 spot.

Jermaine Wattimena is the only player projected to do any real damage making the top 32 in just 9.2% of sims. A Semi-Final for him would have him on the same money as Ratajski.

If you want to see all the updates as the tournament progresses make sure you keep an eye on my X (Twitter) throughout the event!